The return of the border walls

Vetonatus K. Kamwela; Binyam Afewerk Demena; Peter A.G. van Bergeijk

doi:10.1080/00036846.2023.2275218

The return of the border walls

Vetonatus K. Kamwela, Binyam Afewerk Demena, Peter A.G. van Bergeijk^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Since the early 2000s, border walls and fences have proliferated and become a global phenomenon with about a third of the countries having at least one wall or fence along its borders. Taking proper account for endogeneity, phasing-in effects and reverse causality, our gravity model for the years 1990–2017 (118 countries) finds a stronger trade-reducing impact of physical border protection structures ranging from 59% to 72%. This impact of physical border protection measures is non-monotonic: the immediate walls effect is insignificant but over the first 4 years after the creation of a wall, it starts to slash trade flows strongly and significantly.

Original language	English
Journal	Applied Economics
Early online date	30 Oct 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2275218
Publication status	Published - 2023

Bibliographical note

JEL CLASSIFICATION: F10; F02; H56 - National Security and War

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© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

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title = "The return of the border walls",

abstract = "Since the early 2000s, border walls and fences have proliferated and become a global phenomenon with about a third of the countries having at least one wall or fence along its borders. Taking proper account for endogeneity, phasing-in effects and reverse causality, our gravity model for the years 1990–2017 (118 countries) finds a stronger trade-reducing impact of physical border protection structures ranging from 59% to 72%. This impact of physical border protection measures is non-monotonic: the immediate walls effect is insignificant but over the first 4 years after the creation of a wall, it starts to slash trade flows strongly and significantly.",

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AB - Since the early 2000s, border walls and fences have proliferated and become a global phenomenon with about a third of the countries having at least one wall or fence along its borders. Taking proper account for endogeneity, phasing-in effects and reverse causality, our gravity model for the years 1990–2017 (118 countries) finds a stronger trade-reducing impact of physical border protection structures ranging from 59% to 72%. This impact of physical border protection measures is non-monotonic: the immediate walls effect is insignificant but over the first 4 years after the creation of a wall, it starts to slash trade flows strongly and significantly.

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The return of the border walls

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