Treating SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection by molnupiravir for pandemic mitigation and living with the virus: a mathematical modeling study

Qinyue Zheng, Chunbing Bao, Yunpeng Ji, Pengfei Li, Zhongren Ma, Xinwei Wang, Qingchun Meng, Qiuwei Pan*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)
12 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Treating severe COVID-19 patients and controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are concurrently important in mitigating the pandemic. Classically, antiviral drugs are primarily developed for treating hospitalized COVID-19 patients with severe diseases to reduce morbidity and/or mortality, which have limited effects on limiting pandemic spread. In this study, we simulated the expanded applications of oral antiviral drugs such as molnupiravir to mitigate the pandemic by treating nonhospitalized COVID-19 cases. We developed a compartmental mathematical model to simulate the effects of molnupiravir treatment assuming various scenarios in the Omicron variant dominated settings in Denmark, the United Kingdom and Germany. We found that treating nonhospitalized cases can limit Omicron spread. This indirectly reduces the burden of hospitalization and patient death. The effectiveness of this approach depends on the intrinsic nature of the antiviral drug and the strategies of implementation. Hypothetically, if resuming pre-pandemic social contact pattern, extensive application of molnupiravir treatment would dramatically (but not completely) mitigate the COVID-19 burden, and thus there remains lifetime cost of living with the virus.

Original languageEnglish
Article number5474
JournalScientific Reports
Volume13
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 May 2023

Bibliographical note

Acknowledgements:
We acknowledge the support by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72271144, No. 72134004) to C. Bao, the VIDI Grant (No. 91719300) from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) to Q. Pan, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42001121) to Q. Zheng. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).

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