Abstract
Background:
This study aimed to validate the DCIS-upstage model, a previously developed model to predict the risk of upstaging to invasive breast cancer in patients with biopsy-proven ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in a more recent cohort and to assess the model’s clinical utility.
Methods:
The model was validated in a registry cohort (n = 2269) and in an institution cohort (n = 302). A calibration plot was made, followed by a decision curve analysis (DCA). The model’s area under the curve (AUC) was compared with the AUC of another published model and with the AUCs of new models using the risk factors of the DCIS-upstage model and additional risk factors.
Results:
The DCIS-upstage model had an AUC of 0.67 at development; in the validation, the AUC was 0.65 in the registry cohort and 0.73 in the institution cohort. The DCA showed that the model has clinical utility. The other published model had an AUC of 0.66 in the institution cohort. Adding risk factors to the DCIS-upstage model slightly increased the AUC.
Conclusions:
The DCIS-upstage prediction model is valid in other cohorts. The model has clinical utility and may be used to select patients with biopsy-proven DCIS for sentinel lymph node biopsy.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 7069-7080 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Annals of Surgical Oncology |
| Volume | 30 |
| Issue number | 12 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Nov 2023 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:This work was supported by a grant from the Stichting Vriendenfonds Albert Schweitzer ziekenhuis and by a grant from Pink Ribbon, the Netherlands.
Funding Information:
The authors thank the Dutch Pathology Databank in the Netherlands and the Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization for providing data that were used to build the registry cohort.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).
