Validation of the acutely presenting older patient screener for short term mortality prediction in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19

Rosalinde A.L. Smits; Bas F.M. van Raaij; Steffy W.M. Jansen; Jessica M. van der Bol; Carolien M.J. van der Linden; Harmke A. Polinder-Bos; Hanna C. Willems; Ewout W. Steyerberg; Maarten van Smeden; Jacobijn Gussekloo; Simon P. Mooijaart; Stella Trompet

doi:10.1007/s41999-025-01200-4

Validation of the acutely presenting older patient screener for short term mortality prediction in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19

Rosalinde A.L. Smits^*
, Bas F.M. van Raaij
, Steffy W.M. Jansen
, Jessica M. van der Bol
, Carolien M.J. van der Linden
, Harmke A. Polinder-Bos
, Hanna C. Willems
, Ewout W. Steyerberg
, Maarten van Smeden
, Jacobijn Gussekloo
, Simon P. Mooijaart
, Stella Trompet

^*Corresponding author for this work

Internal Medicine

Leiden University
Catharina Hospital
Reinier de Graaf Hospital
Amsterdam UMC
Leiden University Medical Centre
Utrecht University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

9 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Aim:

To validate the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screener to predict risk of adverse outcomes in older people, for prediction of in-hospital mortality and 30-days-mortality in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

Findings:

The APOP screener discriminated poorly for in-hospital mortality [AUC 0.56 (95% CI 0.48–0.63)] and for 30-days-mortality [AUC 0.62 (95% CI 0.55–0.68)]. Calibration plots revealed overestimation of the screener for both mortality risks.

Message:

Screening tools routinely used on the ED may not be useful to predict mortality in different than usual clinical circumstances such as during a pandemic of a novel disease.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1519-1526
Number of pages	8
Journal	European Geriatric Medicine
Volume	16
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s41999-025-01200-4
Publication status	Published - Aug 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025.

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Validation of the acutely presenting older patient screener for short term mortality prediction in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19Final published version, 748 KBLicence: CC BY

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Smits, R. A. L., van Raaij, B. F. M., Jansen, S. W. M., van der Bol, J. M., van der Linden, C. M. J., Polinder-Bos, H. A., Willems, H. C., Steyerberg, E. W., van Smeden, M., Gussekloo, J., Mooijaart, S. P., & Trompet, S. (2025). Validation of the acutely presenting older patient screener for short term mortality prediction in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19. European Geriatric Medicine, 16(4), 1519-1526. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41999-025-01200-4

@article{3ef6299f1f9747f2a9c615318b0da641,

title = "Validation of the acutely presenting older patient screener for short term mortality prediction in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19",

abstract = "Aim: To validate the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screener to predict risk of adverse outcomes in older people, for prediction of in-hospital mortality and 30-days-mortality in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Findings: The APOP screener discriminated poorly for in-hospital mortality [AUC 0.56 (95\% CI 0.48{\textendash}0.63)] and for 30-days-mortality [AUC 0.62 (95\% CI 0.55{\textendash}0.68)]. Calibration plots revealed overestimation of the screener for both mortality risks. Message: Screening tools routinely used on the ED may not be useful to predict mortality in different than usual clinical circumstances such as during a pandemic of a novel disease.",

author = "Smits, \{Rosalinde A.L.\} and \{van Raaij\}, \{Bas F.M.\} and Jansen, \{Steffy W.M.\} and \{van der Bol\}, \{Jessica M.\} and \{van der Linden\}, \{Carolien M.J.\} and Polinder-Bos, \{Harmke A.\} and Willems, \{Hanna C.\} and Steyerberg, \{Ewout W.\} and \{van Smeden\}, Maarten and Jacobijn Gussekloo and Mooijaart, \{Simon P.\} and Stella Trompet",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2025.",

year = "2025",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1007/s41999-025-01200-4",

language = "English",

volume = "16",

pages = "1519--1526",

journal = "European Geriatric Medicine",

issn = "1878-7649",

publisher = "Springer Science+Business Media",

number = "4",

}

Smits, RAL, van Raaij, BFM, Jansen, SWM, van der Bol, JM, van der Linden, CMJ, Polinder-Bos, HA, Willems, HC, Steyerberg, EW, van Smeden, M, Gussekloo, J, Mooijaart, SP & Trompet, S 2025, 'Validation of the acutely presenting older patient screener for short term mortality prediction in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19', European Geriatric Medicine, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 1519-1526. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41999-025-01200-4

TY - JOUR

T1 - Validation of the acutely presenting older patient screener for short term mortality prediction in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19

AU - Smits, Rosalinde A.L.

AU - van Raaij, Bas F.M.

AU - Jansen, Steffy W.M.

AU - van der Bol, Jessica M.

AU - van der Linden, Carolien M.J.

AU - Polinder-Bos, Harmke A.

AU - Willems, Hanna C.

AU - Steyerberg, Ewout W.

AU - van Smeden, Maarten

AU - Gussekloo, Jacobijn

AU - Mooijaart, Simon P.

AU - Trompet, Stella

PY - 2025/8

Y1 - 2025/8

N2 - Aim: To validate the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screener to predict risk of adverse outcomes in older people, for prediction of in-hospital mortality and 30-days-mortality in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Findings: The APOP screener discriminated poorly for in-hospital mortality [AUC 0.56 (95% CI 0.48–0.63)] and for 30-days-mortality [AUC 0.62 (95% CI 0.55–0.68)]. Calibration plots revealed overestimation of the screener for both mortality risks. Message: Screening tools routinely used on the ED may not be useful to predict mortality in different than usual clinical circumstances such as during a pandemic of a novel disease.

AB - Aim: To validate the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screener to predict risk of adverse outcomes in older people, for prediction of in-hospital mortality and 30-days-mortality in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Findings: The APOP screener discriminated poorly for in-hospital mortality [AUC 0.56 (95% CI 0.48–0.63)] and for 30-days-mortality [AUC 0.62 (95% CI 0.55–0.68)]. Calibration plots revealed overestimation of the screener for both mortality risks. Message: Screening tools routinely used on the ED may not be useful to predict mortality in different than usual clinical circumstances such as during a pandemic of a novel disease.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105003270101

U2 - 10.1007/s41999-025-01200-4

DO - 10.1007/s41999-025-01200-4

M3 - Article

C2 - 40261576

AN - SCOPUS:105003270101

SN - 1878-7649

VL - 16

SP - 1519

EP - 1526

JO - European Geriatric Medicine

JF - European Geriatric Medicine

IS - 4

ER -

Validation of the acutely presenting older patient screener for short term mortality prediction in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19

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